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Illustrative · read-only
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Chapters and their answers
Question 5 of 6 · Is it working?

Helped seats are 14 points ahead of a group Aristo never nudged — the lift is Aristo’s doing.

measured against a never-nudged control group of 154 seats · 95% confidence
The move
See what the proven lift has returned — the Value Report counts it, with the causal part named.
See what came back
Take it to your meeting
The deckThe Frontier Firm Report as PowerPoint — one slide per question. This question as a PDFThe sheet, ready to print or save. ListenThis answer, read aloud.
Control group — a fixed share of seats ready to activate, set on day 0 and never nudged; they keep every license, they only miss Aristo’s help.
Proven — the gap cleared 95% confidence; below that this report says “directional”.
← 4 · What do we do next?6 · What is coming? →

Question 5 · How do we know it’s working?

As of 24 September 2026
Last counted Run #4 24 September 2026
Because we never nudge 12% of your seats ready to activate — and the rest are 14 points ahead of them.
Helped · 1,126 seats — 38.0% now active Helped · 1,126 seats 38.0% now active Never nudged · 154 seats — 24.0% now active Never nudged · 154 seats 24.0% now active what “anyway” actually looks like inside your own company 0% 50% 100%
Fig · The never-nudged control group. Both arms were drawn on day 0 by a fixed rule and neither has been re-drawn since. The gap between them is the only part of this report that answers “would it have happened anyway?” — and a seat counts as proven only from the confidence interval's lower bound, never the gap itself.

How we counted this

the working, the words, the sources

So what: this is the number a CFO can defend — a built-in control group, measured for 90 days. If the line ever flattens, this page will say so: the score is allowed to go down.

Defined: control group / holdout — a deterministic 12% of seats ready to activate, never nudged, set on day 0. proven — the gap at 95% statistical confidence; below that bar this report says “directional”, never “proven”.

See the two arms, in full

the control group · the confidence interval
Counted Run #3 → #4: score 74 → 78 across valid completed evidence

Every claim on this page survives a boardroom: counted signals, a control group, and a number that is allowed to go down.

This is the Day-60 proof every approved move points to: activation, measured here against the holdout, and proven only when it is. Not a claim to take on trust — a number that has to earn itself.

Projected activation PROJECTION · NOT MEASURED

~80% next month — this is an estimate, not a measurement: simple linear trend from the last 4 weekly readings. The solid line is your real weekly readings; the dashed line is where the trend points. It re-draws as each week lands.