AristoContosoIllustrative · read-only
Perspective
ExecutiveFinanceIT & SecurityTeam leadRaw
Illustrative · read-only
Chapters and their answers
Question 3 of 5 · Is it causal — or would it have happened anyway?

Yes — helped seats are 14.0 points ahead of the ones Aristo never touched: 69 seats are Aristo’s doing.

causal · 95% confidence (6.1–20.7 points) · the lower bound carries the dollars
Control group — a fixed share of seats ready to activate, set on day 0 and never nudged.
Lift — the helped group’s activation rate minus the control group’s, in points.

Question 3 · Is it causal — or would it have happened anyway?

Yes. Helped seats are 14.0 points ahead of the ones Aristo never touched. That makes 69 seats genuinely ours.
This is the number no competitor can print — activation a control group says would not have happened anyway.See what it justifies

How we counted this

the method, in a paragraph you can repeat

How it works, in one paragraph you can repeat. On the first day, Aristo splits your seats ready to activate into two groups by a fixed rule — not by hand, and not re-drawn later. One group gets help. The other gets none, on purpose. Some weeks later Aristo counts how many in each group are genuinely using Copilot. The difference between those two percentages is the lift, and it is the only part of this report that answers "would it have happened anyway?" — because the second group is what "anyway" actually looks like inside your own company.

The helped arm — seats ready to activate that got Aristo’s warm, role-matched help.

The never-nudged arm — seats ready to activate Aristo deliberately left alone, chosen on day 0 and never touched since.

A fixed rule splits your seats ready to activate on day 0 into a helped arm and a control arm that is never nudged. Neither arm is hand-picked and the split is not re-drawn to flatter a result. The lift is the difference between the two arms' activation rates, and every dollar claimed from it uses the lower bound of a 95% confidence interval.

So what: every other number in this document is counted; this one is caused, and the difference is the whole reason the report exists. A rising line proves a line rose. A control group your own company never touched is what tells you whether the line would have risen anyway — and it is the one thing a dashboard cannot retrofit later.

You can now decide: whether the activation you are seeing is worth paying for — this page measures how much of it Aristo actually caused, so the judgment rests on a counted difference rather than on a rising line.

Defined: Control group / holdout — a deterministic share of your seats ready to activate, set on day 0 and never nudged; they keep every license and capability, they simply get no help from Aristo. Lift — the helped arm's activation rate minus the control arm's, in percentage points. 95% confidence interval — the range the true lift sits in; every dollar this report claims from the lift uses its lower bound. Proven — the gap cleared 95% confidence. Directional — it has not, so no dollar is claimed.

See both arms, in full

the control group · the confidence interval
Fig 4 · The never-nudged control group
14.0 points of lift
causal

The helped seats are 14.0 points ahead of the ones Aristo never touched, after 90 days. At 95% confidence the true gap is between 6.1 and 20.7 points — and every dollar this report claims from activation uses the lower end.

Helped arm 38.0% active. At 95% confidence the true gap over the never-nudged arm is between 6.1 and 20.7 points — every dollar claimed uses the lower end. Helped · 1,126 seats 38.0% now active Never nudged · 154 seats — 24.0% now active Never nudged · 154 seats 24.0% now active the never-nudged arm — what “anyway” looks like inside your own company 0% 50% 100%
69 Copilot seats are holdout-proven — the seats the confidence interval's lower bound will carry, so statistical noise cannot manufacture one$2,070 / mo causal
The control group is never a punishment. Its members keep every seat, every license and every included capability; the single thing they do not get is Aristo's nudge — and the arm is re-drawn as each cohort refreshes, so nobody is held out forever.