Chapters and their answers
Yes — helped seats are 14.0 points ahead of the ones Aristo never touched: 69 seats are Aristo’s doing.
Question 3 · Is it causal — or would it have happened anyway?
How we counted this
the method, in a paragraph you can repeat
How it works, in one paragraph you can repeat. On the first day, Aristo splits your seats ready to activate into two groups by a fixed rule — not by hand, and not re-drawn later. One group gets help. The other gets none, on purpose. Some weeks later Aristo counts how many in each group are genuinely using Copilot. The difference between those two percentages is the lift, and it is the only part of this report that answers "would it have happened anyway?" — because the second group is what "anyway" actually looks like inside your own company.
The helped arm — seats ready to activate that got Aristo’s warm, role-matched help.
The never-nudged arm — seats ready to activate Aristo deliberately left alone, chosen on day 0 and never touched since.
A fixed rule splits your seats ready to activate on day 0 into a helped arm and a control arm that is never nudged. Neither arm is hand-picked and the split is not re-drawn to flatter a result. The lift is the difference between the two arms' activation rates, and every dollar claimed from it uses the lower bound of a 95% confidence interval.
So what: every other number in this document is counted; this one is caused, and the difference is the whole reason the report exists. A rising line proves a line rose. A control group your own company never touched is what tells you whether the line would have risen anyway — and it is the one thing a dashboard cannot retrofit later.
You can now decide: whether the activation you are seeing is worth paying for — this page measures how much of it Aristo actually caused, so the judgment rests on a counted difference rather than on a rising line.
See both arms, in full
the control group · the confidence interval
The helped seats are 14.0 points ahead of the ones Aristo never touched, after 90 days. At 95% confidence the true gap is between 6.1 and 20.7 points — and every dollar this report claims from activation uses the lower end.