Chapters and their answers
Question 3 of 5 · Is it causal — or would it have happened anyway?
Yes — helped seats are 14.0 points ahead of the ones Aristo never touched: 69 seats are Aristo’s doing.
causal · 95% confidence (6.1–20.7 points) · the lower bound carries the dollars
The move
See what the proven mechanism justifies next.
Control group — a fixed share of seats ready to activate, set on day 0 and never nudged.
Lift — the helped group’s activation rate minus the control group’s, in points.
Scroll sideways for the remaining columns.
| Run | Counted on | Frontier score | Assigned seats in use | Assigned seats ready to activate, a month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run 4 | 24 September | 78 | 2,760 | $38,400 |
| Run 3 | 25 August | 74 | 2,757 | $38,490 |
| Run 2 | 26 July | 70 | 2,754 | $38,580 |
| Run 1 | 26 June | 66 | 2,751 | $38,670 |
Every run is stored and never re-scored; nothing has moved since the newest one, so it is the reading on this page. The score is allowed to go down.